Broad adoption of artificial intelligence could increase the combined gross domestic product of Latin America and the Caribbean by 5.1% over the next decade, according to estimates presented by the Inter-American Development Bank. The projection was discussed as governments and technology companies gathered in New York on September 21, 2026, to consider a coordinated strategy for the development and use of AI across the region.
The meeting took place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly and included presidents, government officials and executives from major technology companies. Representatives from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Panama, Uruguay, Guyana, Paraguay, Suriname, the Dominican Republic, Bolivia, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic were among those involved, alongside senior executives from Google, Anthropic, Microsoft, Nvidia and Meta.
Participants discussed the creation of a regional mechanism focused on common guidelines for investment, regulation, digital infrastructure, workforce training and data governance. The proposal reflects an effort to treat artificial intelligence not only as a technology issue, but also as a matter of economic policy, public services, employment and cooperation among countries in the Americas.
Economic gains depend on the scale of adoption
The IDB’s estimate contrasts two possible paths for the region. In a scenario involving broad AI adoption and significant productivity gains, Latin America and the Caribbean could see a 5.1% increase in GDP over ten years. Under conditions of limited adoption and weaker productivity effects, the projected increase would be only 0.3%.
The difference suggests that access to the technology will be a central factor in determining its economic impact. According to the IDB, the benefits will depend on policy decisions by governments and on whether artificial intelligence becomes available beyond large technology companies and major urban centers.
The institution said AI is already being used in areas including social protection, public safety and workplace productivity. However, the existence of those applications does not guarantee that their benefits will be distributed evenly. Expanding digital infrastructure, preparing workers and establishing rules for data use are part of the policy challenge identified at the New York meeting.
Worker mobility emerges as a decisive factor
The IDB estimates also focus on the labor market. Wages could rise between 2.3% and 5.3% over ten years if workers are able to move into sectors that expand as artificial intelligence is adopted. The projection points to worker mobility and access to new opportunities as important conditions for translating productivity gains into higher incomes.
Without that transition, wages could fall between 13.5% and 20.9%, according to the institution. The contrast highlights the risk that AI could widen economic inequalities if training and employment opportunities remain concentrated among specific groups, companies or locations.
For governments across Latin America and the Caribbean, the issue therefore extends beyond encouraging technological investment. Policies will also need to address the ability of workers to acquire new skills and move into growing areas of the economy. The IDB’s figures place workforce preparation at the center of the debate over the region’s AI strategy.
Brazil has a direct role in the regional discussion
Brazil participated in the meeting through its Ministry of Management and Innovation, giving the country a direct role in discussions about regional coordination. The agenda could affect debates over government services, technology investment, labor markets and the use of artificial intelligence in public administration.
The regional approach also connects Latin American governments with technology companies based in the United States. By bringing both groups into the same discussion, the meeting placed AI adoption within a broader hemispheric framework involving regulation, infrastructure, economic competitiveness and public-sector capacity.
The IDB’s full flagship report, titled From Digitalization to Artificial Intelligence: Turning Promises into Productivity, is scheduled for publication in November 2026. The report is expected to provide additional detail on the relationship between digital transformation, artificial intelligence and productivity across the region.
A regional agenda still shaped by policy choices
The estimates presented by the IDB do not describe a single inevitable outcome for Latin America and the Caribbean. Instead, they outline how different levels of adoption, productivity and worker mobility could produce sharply different economic results.
The New York meeting placed common rules and coordinated investment at the center of the discussion. For the region, the main question is whether governments can expand access to infrastructure, training and responsible data governance quickly enough to ensure that AI-driven growth reaches workers, public institutions and communities beyond the largest technology hubs.
As the regional mechanism is discussed and the full IDB report approaches publication, artificial intelligence is emerging as a shared economic and public-policy issue across the Americas. Its eventual impact will depend not only on the capabilities of the technology, but also on how countries choose to regulate, finance and distribute its use.
