Despite news that could boost the dollar, such as the application of tariffs by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and the rise in American inflation, the currency did not show the expected appreciation. At the close of this Wednesday (12), the dollar recorded a negative fluctuation of 0.08%, closing at R$5.763. This result is a continuation of the falls observed in recent sessions, contradicting the expectation of an increase following the recent announcements.
Data on inflation in the United States showed a greater increase than market projections, indicating that the American economy remains strong. As a result, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would keep interest rates high for longer, which could make investments in the US more attractive. However, despite this expectation, the American currency did not react as expected in the foreign exchange market.
In recent days, the dollar has shown a downward trend, as the market appears to have exaggerated expectations for the currency to rise. Over several sessions, the real recovered against the dollar, correcting the strong depreciation observed at the end of last year. This movement is seen as a natural adjustment of the Brazilian currency, which appreciated in relation to what was considered an excess in the price of the American currency.
Furthermore, an important factor that helped ease pressure on the dollar was the expectation of a possible resolution to the war between Russia and Ukraine. The signaling of direct negotiations between the United States and Russia, following a phone call from President Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin, generated some relief in the markets. The possible normalization of the global geopolitical scenario would have the effect of reducing uncertainty in financial markets.
In the international context, the war between Russia and Ukraine has had major impacts on commodity prices and global economic conditions. If tension between the two countries is reduced, a reduction in uncertainty is expected, which could favor the stabilization of financial markets and currencies. This scenario, if consolidated, could directly reflect on the dollar exchange rate, which has been suffering strong fluctuations.
It is important to highlight that, despite positive signs in the international market and the maintenance of high interest rates in the United States, the dollar did not show the expected strength. Even with the US economic data and the increase in tariffs, the American currency has been unstable, closing another session lower, which reflects a broader trend in the foreign exchange market in recent weeks.
The variation in the American currency has also been influenced by the market’s perception that Brazil can benefit from this correction in the value of the real. Domestic economic conditions, added to the global stabilization movement, have favored the recovery of the real against the dollar. This phenomenon is viewed favorably, as the Brazilian currency tends to strengthen as confidence in the domestic market increases.
In short, the American currency did not react as expected to news about inflation and tariffs in the United States. The continuous fall of the dollar in recent days reflects a correction of exaggerated appreciation expectations, with the real benefiting from the adjustment and possible peace negotiations in the geopolitical scenario. The stabilization movement of currencies and the relief of global tension have supported the recovery of the real against the dollar.
